New I Bond rate inflation component

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The March level of 199.8 (1982-84=100) was 3.4 percent higher than in March 2005.

What this means for I Bond investors

 

For those who purchased I Bonds since November 1 of last year, your bonds will be paying their fixed rate of 1% plus an inflation component of 1% for their second six months.  The inflation component is calculated with the following formula:

March 2006 CPI-U: 199.8
September 2005 CPI-U: 198.8

Difference: (199.8 - 198.8) / 198.8 = .5% (six month inflation rate) x 2 = 1% inflation component

This means a bond purchased between October 2005 and April 2006 and held for the minimum of 12 months would earn 3.88% after the three month interest penalty.  (~4.4% less 3 months worth of interest at 2%).  Not great, but not terrible either.  Note that I’m using a full 12 months worth of time for simplicity, you can actually get 12 months of interest while only holding 11 months by timing your purchases at the end of the month.
The new fixed rate for I Bonds purchase in May will not be announced until May 1.  With a 1% inflation component I don’t see these selling too well if the fixed rate doesn’t rise above the 1% it is currently at.  I anticipate we’ll see an increase but am not too confident it will be enough to justify purchasing I Bonds in the next six months.

I am going to pass on my regularly scheduled April purchase since I can do much better than 4.4% even in a regular savings account.  Depending on where the fixed component gets adjusted to, I may sell the previous bonds I purchased and re-buy new ones.  I’ll let you all know on May 1.  This disrupts my ladder but I’ll manage…

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Rates for the next six months for I Bonds were released today. The fixed rate was raised to 1.4%, while the variable rate is 1% as expected from the CPI-U numbers announced in mid-April.

 

I was hoping for a higher fixed rate but given that the low inflation component is temporary this is really no surprise. Rather than continue my monthly purchases I will likely instead invest in Treasury Bills for the next five months, then make one larger purchase of I Bonds at the end of the current six month cycle. This way I can capture a higher rate in the short-run while still capturing the 1.4% fixed rate before it expires. I look at it as a 40% higher real return than the bonds I’ve purchased since November 2005. The inflation component will be consistent across them anyway and I intend to hold for a long time. (ten years or more)

As my existing I Bond portfolio crosses the 12 month threshold where I can sell them I may do so and swap into newer bonds assuming the fixed rate component remains higher than the 1% I am earning on most of them at the moment. This will be a good opportunity to do so since I’ll only have to sacrifice three months of interest @ 2%. We’ll know for sure in six months.

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I’m not normally the doom and gloom type but what I’ve been reading about subprime mortgage debt has me a bit concerned… I don’t know what will happen but one possibility is laid out below.

 

There are approximately six million subprime mortgages in the USA. The average home price is $190,000. This comes out to $1.14 Trillion (with a “T”) in subprime debt. Let’s round that down to $1 Trillion both for simplicity and the assumption that many of these loans are on lower-end houses. These loans are packaged up, along with non-subprime loans into Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). The CDOs are then sold to institutional investors such as pension funds and hedge funds.

Based on the numbers above, a 1% drop in home values would then equate to a $10 Billion loss of value in the underlying assets of these CDOs. While this might seem bad enough it’s actually far worse. You see, the funds buying these CDOs use them as collateral to borrow more money, which is then invested in more CDOs or other assets such as stocks and other bond assets. The total leverage being used is unknown but is in the neighborhood of 10 to 25 times the value of the underlying assets. So our $1 Trillion in CDOs equates to $10-25 Trillion in total assets whose prices have been supported by the underlying mortgages.

So going back to our 1% drop in housing values… The $10B loss is now multiplied to $100-250 Billion. If funds are forced to liquidate assets to cover these losses it could put further downward pressure on CDOs which might turn into a feedback loop. At a minimum it would put severe downward pressure on all of the asset classes which have been pushed upward by the use of these financial instruments, including stocks, bonds and real estate (the number of foreclosed homes has increased dramatically nationwide and has been putting severe downward pressure on home prices.) As bond prices are depressed, interest rates will rise across the board which will further exacerbate the problem as more Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) adjust upward.

As asset prices decline and interest rates rise the economy, already growing a very slow pace (and some say in a recession already) will slow more. This will force the Federal Reserve to drop it’s interest rates and inject cash into the economy in an attempt to prevent a complete meltdown. At this time, the rest of the world is in the process of tightening their monetary policy, raising interest rates. So the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the US will have the effect of further depressing the dollar (already at multiyear lows against most other currencies). This will drive up prices of imports (take a look at how much of what you buy is from China and other countries) and inflate prices in general. This condition is known as “stagflation” which is the combination of a stagnant (or shrinking) economy and high inflation and rising unemployment.

The last time the US experienced stagflation was in the 1970s, mainly during the Carter administration. The solution at the time by Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was to sharply increase interest rates to reduce the money supply. (I remember my parents getting paid 18% interest on bank CDs at that time.) But wait…in our scenario above the Fed was reducing rates to prop up asset prices and the economy in general. So what can we do in this situation? I hope we don’t find out but to me it looks like we’d have to make a choice between a long period of high inflation and the further collapse of the US Dollar against other currencies or a severe monetary contraction, possibly leading to a situation similar to the Great Depression.

What will happen is anybody’s guess. The world economy is a lot more integrated than it was in the 1930’s. Perhaps the explosive growth in emerging economies will help absorb the shock somewhat. Perhaps these fears are all overblown. Time will tell.

Preparing for such events is a wise thing to do whether or not they happen. Live below your means, have an emergency fund and be prepared to rebalance your portfolio and invest more if we’re given an opportunity to do so at bargain basement prices.

My next concern is where to stash our retirement and other assets. To date I’ve attempted to be a bit of a market timer. I’ve grown to realize that this is a mistake and that the odds of correctly timing the markets are abysmally slim. That being said we are about 30% in cash and 30% bonds at the moment. My plan is to design our ultimate portfolio over the course of the next few weeks or months and start implementing that plan. Rather than throwing all of the money we have in cash/bonds back into equities however we’ll likely do so over the course of a couple of years in order to cost average (or actually value average) our way back into the market. I don’t know what our ultimate portfolio will be but it will be mostly stocks with a healthy does of International and Emerging Market equities, a smaller amount of bonds and probably some precious metals/commodities. More on this later.

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Household Bank Cash back and 0%

It is generally offered to those who have sub-par credit (which I had due to my Chap. 7 bankruptcy in 2000). The offer I got was 0% for six months on both balance transfers and purchases. I am beyond that period now but another nice feature is 2% cash back on purchases. They even gave me the 2% back on a 0% balance transfer I did when I got the card! There is a limit of $400 per year which I’ve just hit. I make most of my purchases on this card in order to capture the reward but now that I won’t be getting it until January I need to look for another rewards card. More on this over the next few days…

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Capital One upgrading my credit card

I’ve been searching for a new rewards credit card for the last week since I’ve maxed my Household Bank card ($400 cash back per year). I’ve applied for the Citi Rewards card but haven’t received a decision yet. I may get turned down due to my bankruptcy even though my credit score is now in the mid 700’s.

 

Today, I received a note that my Capital One card, which I rarely use anymore is being upgraded to a No Hassle Points card. I don’t see this card listed on their site but it appears to offer points for purchases (1 point per dollar) which can be exchanged for merchandise. Based on some of the sample rewards it seems to be offering around 2% value ($100 gift card for 5001 or more points) The offer also makes mention of cash rewards but there is no mention of how many points per dollar of reward. So, I’ll have to wait to receive the card to find out.

At least now I don’t have to care if I get approved for the Citi card or not, although I was looking forward to doing another balance transfer arbitrage, possibly into iBonds for a nice return.

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Received $50 bonus from HSBC

I received my $50 bonus for opening the Smart Package Checking account with them. (You had to open a Smart Checking Plus and a Money Market account.) I already had an Online Savings account so I only keep $25 in the Money Market. I’m most of the way through the process of making HSBC my primary bank. All that is really left to do is have my paychecks direct deposited into my HSBC account. Jonathan at MyMoneyBlog has a scan of an offer he received and some other info there (use code Get50 when opening the account.)

Overall I am pretty happy with HSBC. The transfer times between accounts are not that bad (3rd business day) if you time them properly. The key is to not let your money sit in limbo over the weekend. The free Bill payment service is fast and efficient and laser printed checks do not post to your account until they are cashed. Electronic transfers to credit cards and other accounts seem to happen the same day! You can also pay your HSBC credit card bills instantly by simply transfering money from your checking (or savings) account to the credit card. This is a nice contrast to Netbank which uses Checkfree for bill payment. There, the money leaves your account the day you pay the bill (whether by check or electronically) and it can take up to 5 days for payments to post to your bills’ accounts. Checkfree is making money on the float.

One thing I will miss with Netbank is their ability to integrate your other accounts right within the banking interface. HSBC allows this only for HSBC accounts but does provide a private label version of Yodlee where you can manage the rest of your accounts. Yodlee seems pretty cool but I have some privacy/security concerns and you do need to have a login separate from your banking log in.

I’ll likely keep my Netbank account around for a while. In fact I just opened a $2,000 one year CD there @ 5.01% APR in order to capture a $50 gift card. If you have a Netbank account you should be able to see the link to this in the menu at the left side of the screen (”Your Special Offers”). It requires funding from a source outside of your Netbank account to qualify for the gift card. I just pulled money from HSBC to fund the CD. The $50 gift card makes the effective APR 7.5% for this deal. Not bad.

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This is the first post of a series I’ll be doing on government and other public sources of solid financial information. I’ve added a category called Financial Information Resources which will contain all of the posts in the series. I’ll be characterizing and rating the sites based on the type of information they have as well as how valuable I found it to be. So without further delay, my guide to Financial Information Resources:

 

Site: MyMoney.gov
Provider: US Government
Type of information: General personal finance info including: Budgeting & Taxes, Credit, Financial Planning, Home Ownership, Paying for Education, Privacy, Fraud, & Scams, Responding To Life Events, Retirement Planning, Saving & Investing, Starting A Small Business
Languages: English and Spanish
Synopsis: The US Federal Government has developed a surprisingly good (if somewhat basic) reference site for financial information and to promote financial literacy. The impetus behind this was the Fair and Accurate Credit Transaction Act (FACT Act) of 2003. The information may seem like common sense to many of us who have taken it upon ourselves to become more educated about our money but in my opinion is a great place to start if you’re just now taking charge of your financial life.
My Ranking: 4.0/5 - The site provides a large collection of information regarding personal finance. The more advanced stuff is missing but isn’t really something I would expect to see here.

In the site’s words:

MyMoney.gov is the U.S. government’s website dedicated to teaching all Americans the basics about financial education. Whether you are planning to buy a home, balancing your checkbook, or investing in your 401k, the resources on MyMoney.gov can help you do it better. Throughout the site, you will find important information from 20 federal agencies government wide.

About the site.

Title V of the Fair and Accurate Credit Transaction Act (FACT Act) established the Financial Literacy and Education Commission (Commission) with the purpose of improving the financial literacy and education of persons in the United States. To reach the widest number of people possible, the Commission established a website and a toll-free telephone number to coordinate the presentation of educational materials from across the spectrum of federal agencies that deal with financial issues and markets.

I’ve ordered their MyMoney Toolkit, will review it’s contents when I receive it.

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Paid off $30K in debt in six months

This will be a short note as I am leaving for LA in a few minutes for a meeting with my largest client…

Just wanted to post to say we retired our HELOC debt this week! You may remember my post back in November about setting goals.

 

I set a goal of paying down our credit card and HELOC debt by $30,000 in six months. Sunday is the six-month anniversary of that goal and I am pleased to say that we made it! The remaining consumer debt we have is all at 0% until July (or longer if another offer comes along). If not, we have the funds to pay it off.

Back in November our total credit card and HELOC debt was $59,290. As of today, it is $30,202. So we’re about a thousand short of our $30K goal but that is only because I used the credit card for a business trip I am about to take (which I’ll be reimbursed for). The bill isn’t due yet for this card (I always pay it off) so by the end of the month it will be gone.

At the same time, our liquid assets have actually increased by about $1,000 plus I have close to $9K in receivables I didn’t have back then. Add to that the $10K we’ve paid against principle on our mortgages and our net worth has risen nicely!

I don’t think we’ll be able to keep this pace up however. With my losing my day-job the income will be more consistent with what it was. Feels good though to have gotten this far though!

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I originally wrote this a few months ago but only just now finished it. Some of the details in the post may be a little out of date but they were accurate at the time. I’m now working on the next article in the series and will have that up within the next few days.

This is the first in a multi-part series of posts on building up your credit lines. I’ve been reviewing the credit lines I have open and working to improve my credit scores as much as possible to prepare to apply for a number of new credit cards. The benefit of this is to both grab a bunch of account opening bonuses as well as taking advantage of 0% balance transfer offers.

 

Since my bankruptcy in 2000 I’ve done a pretty good job (I think) of rebuilding my credit. I’ve paid everything on time and have slowly built up my credit lines. The only negative item on my credit is the chapter 7 and it is now over 7 years old and doesn’t appear to be affecting my credit score too much. When we were house shopping, my wife and I had no problem getting pre-approved for a mortgage amount I didn’t think we could afford. (FYI: We ended up buying a house that was less than half our pre-approval amount.) As much as I have built my credit lines, they are in my opinion still too small given my age/assets and income.

Since we’ll soon need to refinance some of our 0% credit card debt I’ve decided to expand my credit lines by applying for a number of new cards. For those of you who read FatWallet this is known as an App-O-Rama. A side-benefit of this process is that you typically capture a number of marketing bonuses offered to entice you to apply for specific cards. Mileage, points, cash and ipods are some examples of the rewards.

Typically, someone who does an app-o-rama applies for dozens of cards all at once on the same day in order to lessen the chances that the hard inquiries are seen by some of the credit card companies and used to deny their applications. It is not uncommon for practitioners to receive well over $100,000 in new credit. I don’t plan on being this aggressive so what I’ll be doing would be termed a mini app-o-rama. I plan on adding several cards, but not to the extremes that some do. I’m looking at this as a way to further build my credit, without doing too much short-term damage to my credit profile.

Having a large number of inquiries show up on your credit report will cause your credit score to dip significantly. For this reason, you should not attempt this if you plan on trying to finance a home in the next year or so. A number of other “bad things” can also happen, such as old credit lines getting closed when your new ones show up. I am not going to get into too much detail on these issues here, do a search on “app-o-rama” or “AOR” on Fatwallet for more details. Please, please don’t rush into anything until and unless you understand the potential consequences!

I’ve labeled this post Step 1 because there are a number of things that should be done before applying for a bunch of new credit.

Your Credit Report
First off, you should make sure your credit reports are as clean as possible, with little or no derogatories. I watch my credit reports like a hawk and am clean on that front. If you do have derogatories, especially current ones, pay the accounts up so they are current. You can also dispute any derogatory information on your report that you feel is inaccurate. By law, the creditor must then respond within 30 days or the item will be removed from your report.

Inquiries
Another thing to watch out for is the number of inquiries on your report that will be displayed to potential creditors (call hard inquiries). Inquiries are typically recored on your credit report for two years. Not only do these impact your credit score but having too many indicates to lenders that you may be getting deeper into debt than you can handle (even if you are or not.) If you have a lot of recent inquiries, you would be best to wait until some of them drop off your report before proceeding. I’ve got more inquiries than I’d like due to the process of setting up a new household. For whatever reason, the phone company (Verizon) and electric company (Ameren) both made hard inquiries to Transunion. I’ve also got two inquiries related to our mortgage (pre-approval and another from the mortgage company we ended up using) as well as a handful of older inquiries from last year’s attempt to apply for some cards. I will probably not wait the full two years it will take for these to drop off my report and it may have some affect on my applications but I think I am in good enough shape to do what I want.

Utilization
Another element to watch out for is the amount of utilization you have on your existing accounts. The old adage that banks only lend money to people who don’t need it is pretty much true. Opinions vary, but having your total utilization (total debt divided by the total of your credit lines) should generally be less than 50%. Utilization on individual accounts should typically be less than 70%. We’re carrying a large 0% balance transfer on one of my wife’s accounts that I am an authorized user on. This account is showing up on my report and is just under 90% utilized. I plan on paying this down to 70% utilization in the next few weeks in order to prepare my credit report. Keep in mind that creditors typically report to the beaureus once a month (usually around your statement date) so there is a lag between when you pay on accounts and when that information will show up. This fact can also be used in your favor if you want to transfer a large balance too a card just after it has reported. I am also an authorized user on a couple of my wife’s other cards which have small (paid off monthly) or 0 balances. The nice thing about this is that it shows a couple of large credit lines on my report with little or no utilization. This has the effect of making my overall utilization well under 50%.

Your current cards and line sizes
Several credit card companies have policies related to the maximum number of cards you can have from them. I’ve got several HSBC cards and several Capital One cards. My plan is to attempt to combine some of these limits into single cards which will have the effect of lowering my individual utilization and showing some larger credit lines on my report.

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Get Out of Debt with an Emergency Fund

emergencyfund.jpg

It’s pretty much common knowledge now that everyone should have an emergency fund of 3-6 months (some experts say even more) of expenses in liquid savings (money that’s easily accessible). But unfortunately, common knowledge isn’t necessarily common practice and many people just don’t have anything in savings. The key to getting out of debt is to have some sort of emergency savings that acts as a cushion against life’s hurdles. Without this cushion, you will be forced to use your credit card or payday loans and go deeper in debt.

If you’re struggling with debt, you absolutely need to have an emergency fund. It is extremely important. Here’s a great plan to get out of debt from Dave Ramsey:

Step 1: Stop borrowing. Simple enough.

Step 2: Save $1000 and put it in the bank. This is the beginning of your emergency fund. You want to do this before you start attacking your debt because this will act as a cushion to protect you for emergencies.

Step 3: Start attacking your debt using the “debt snowball”. We’re going to pay off all your debts except your mortgage. List your debts on a sheet from smallest to largest (in amount, not interest rate). Then start attacking the smallest debt and pay minimum payments on the rest. Once that’s paid off, take that payment and add it to your next debt and so on until all your debts are paid off.

Step 4: Fully fund your emergency fund which is 3-6 months of expenses. You can download an emergency fund worksheet from Bankrate. It’s a PDF that you can view or print. To get the 6 month emergency fund, you just need to multiply each line by 6 instead of 3.

Step 5: Then start investing and grow your net worth.

This is not my plan. This is from Dave Ramsey who is a great Christian finance guy. I’m going to do a review on one of his books so stay tuned for that.

A great place to put your emergency fund is a high yield online savings account. I’ll have another post on some of the savings accounts that I use.

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